India is experiencing a disappointing monsoon season, with rainfall already delayed in various regions, including Maharashtra and Goa, as the El Niño weather phenomenon takes effect.
The Indian Meteorological Department’s region-wise rainfall deficit map indicates that central India is facing a 67% deficit, while east and northeast India are at 42%, the southern peninsula at 22%, and northwest India at 6%. This bleak forecast for the monsoon, which is crucial for Indian agriculture, poses a threat to farming and other sectors.
As of Wednesday, June 17, the monsoon rainfall across India was reported to be nearly 40% below normal, according to the latest data from the India Meteorological Department. The monsoon season, which runs from June to September, is responsible for the majority of the country’s annual rainfall.
India has already lost the first two weeks of the critical 122-day rainy period. An analysis by HT reveals that the rainfall deficit has increased rather than decreased since the rains first reached the Kerala coast on June 4.
This poor start is adversely affecting the growing season for essential crops, including rice and soybeans, and is disrupting vital sectors such as construction, as reported by Bloomberg.
The slow northward movement of the southwest monsoon, along with the recent emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean—which typically results in reduced rainfall in India—could have serious implications for kharif crops, which rely on timely rainfall for growth.
Expectations for a weak monsoon this year are heightened, especially since 2026 is predicted to be an El Niño year.
By June 15, the latest date for which normal progress data is available, the monsoon should have reached Maharashtra, the southern half of Chhattisgarh, and Odisha from the southern/southwestern direction, as well as the eastern half of Jharkhand and Bihar from the east.
From June 1 to June 16, India has received 50.3 mm of rain, marking the 34th lowest rainfall for this period since 1901, the year when the IMD began publishing gridded data. This amount is also 27.1% below the average for the June 1-16 period from 1971 to 2020.
