During the 2009 general elections, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by Sharad Pawar, was part of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). At that time, the Left Front, having withdrawn its support from UPA-I due to disagreements over a nuclear deal with the US, entered the elections as a third front, which included the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led by then-Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.

While Pawar’s party aligned with Congress in Maharashtra, its unit in Odisha was associated with the Left-BJD coalition. Pawar was slated to speak at a rally alongside the Left and BJD in Odisha but was unable to attend due to an aircraft malfunction that left him grounded in Nashik. Instead, he participated via a phone call.

This incident prompted Pranab Mukherjee, a senior Congress leader and Pawar’s Cabinet colleague, to remark in an interview, “He [Pawar] always gives mixed signals. Although it may not be desirable, it is inevitable.” He noted that this has been a recurring theme throughout Pawar’s political career.

After fifty-nine years in politics, Pawar continues to keep his intentions ambiguous, leaving both friends and foes speculating about his next steps. Recently, rumors have surfaced regarding his potential shift towards the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). However, his daughter Supriya Sule, who leads the NCP in the Lok Sabha, firmly denied any such plans, stating on July 18 in Pune, “There is no such proposal of joining the NDA. We have not received, nor given, any such proposal.”

Those familiar with Pawar’s political style understand that such denials can often be temporary, revealing little about his true intentions.

The backdrop for this speculation includes the fracturing of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, with six of its nine Lok Sabha MPs defecting to Eknath Shinde’s faction, a maneuver viewed as part of the BJP’s strategy to achieve a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha. This majority is crucial for passing significant constitutional amendments, including those related to delimitation and a potential uniform civil code.

The BJP, seeking to reach the critical threshold of 361 seats, would benefit from aligning with smaller parties currently in the INDIA bloc. The NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), possessing eight Lok Sabha MPs, holds strategic importance. If Pawar were to join the NDA or support specific legislation, it would bring the BJP closer to its goal, presenting a political puzzle that Pawar seems content to let others unravel.

Backing the NDA on a single piece of legislation could be advantageous for both Pawar and the BJP. Following reports that the NCP(SP) might support the NDA on delimitation, Sule clarified that any such proposal would first require internal discussions within the party and consultations with INDIA bloc partners. The delimitation plan under consideration reportedly suggests a uniform 50% increase in Lok Sabha seats nationwide, with indications that it could attract support from the Samajwadi Party (SP). With shifts in support from factions like the Trinamool Congress and SP, the BJP could potentially push the bill through.

However, this remains a challenging scenario for the government. The BJP may find more success in leveraging divisions within opposition parties, as seen with the recent departures in the Trinamool Congress and Shiv Sena.

Pawar appears to be strategically navigating his options, reportedly engaging in discussions with both the Congress and BJP. In a previous interview, he suggested that splinter groups from Congress would eventually reintegrate. Following Mamata Banerjee’s electoral defeat in West Bengal, speculation about Congress factions returning to its fold has increased.

Pawar’s party currently holds eight Lok Sabha MPs and ten MLAs in Maharashtra. Anticipating that the BJP might attempt to lure away his MPs and MLAs, he sees two potential paths. A merger with Congress could help maintain party unity, yet the leadership at both state and national levels has not been particularly welcoming to Pawar’s return.

Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has reasons for caution; members who remained loyal to Pawar may not stay committed if his party merges with Congress. As the 2028 general elections approach, MPs and MLAs could drift from Congress, affecting the party’s strength. Conversely, those aligned with Pawar may find Congress their only viable option, complicating the decision for Congress leadership.

Reports from Maharashtra indicate that Pawar’s faction has also been conversing with BJP leaders. Maharashtra Chief Minister and BJP figure Devendra Fadnavis recently stated that there was no opportunity for new partners in the Mahayuti, the BJP-led coalition in the state. However, this could also imply that if Pawar’s faction were to merge under its president, Sunetra Pawar, there might be a possibility of joining the government.

The merger of the two NCP factions was previously anticipated while Ajit Pawar was still alive. Following his passing, Sunetra Pawar became the Deputy Chief Minister and was elected the NCP’s national president. She and her son, Rajya Sabha MP Parth Pawar, have opposed a merger with the NCP(SP). Other leaders, including Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare, initially resisted a merger but have since reconsidered their stance as they observed differences in the leadership approach of Parth Pawar in contrast to Ajit and Sharad Pawar.

In late July, Patel remarked in Mumbai that the void created by Ajit Pawar’s death is significant and that the party requires substantial operational changes. This comment was interpreted as pressure on Sunetra and Parth Pawar to reconsider their opposition to a merger. As negotiations resumed following Fadnavis’s remarks, reports emerged that the central BJP leadership may be open to a united NCP merging with the NDA. However, discussions reportedly halted over leadership disputes within the united NCP.

Sunetra Pawar seeks to remain as national president, while Sule is reportedly aiming for a major Cabinet position. In Maharashtra, Jayant Patil, a prominent leader from the Sharad Pawar faction, is also vying for the finance minister role.