According to the Met Department forecast, conditions remain favourable for the monsoon’s further advance across eastern and central India. The IMD has also predicted heavy rainfall over parts of northeast India and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the week. At present, the monsoon passes through parts of Maharashtra, Odisha, Bihar, and Jharkhand, indicating a gradual speed of seasonal rains.
Heavy Rainfall Predictions in East and Northeast (June 17-22)
The Weather Department has predicted heavy showers over Bihar between June 17 and 20, whereas Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are expected to get heavy rainfall from June 17 to 22. Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya, and Assam are also likely to experience widespread rainfall over the coming days.
In southern India, Kerala and Mahe are also expected to witness similar weather conditions, with isolated showers predicted through June 17. Tamil Nadu and Puducherry may also get heavy showers on June 17 and June 18.
Meanwhile, heatwave conditions are likely to persist in isolated pockets of Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and Telangana.
El Nino Puts Focus on Farm Preparedness
Even as monsoon activity gathers advancement, the Centre has asked states to prepare for possible disruptions linked to El Nino, a climate phenomenon often related to weaker monsoons and erratic rainfall in India.
During a review meeting conducted on June 16 on Kharif preparedness, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan ordered to identify vulnerable districts and prepare crop-specific contingency plans. As per Agriculture Ministry officials, as quoted by PTI, 12 states and 326 districts have been flagged as potentially vulnerable to El Niño-related impacts this season.
The states include Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Odisha, Telangana, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
Chouhan has asked for district-level planning focused on water conservation, alternative crop patterns, and moisture management. He also highlighted the need to provide farmers with scientific and practical advisories.
The concerns have been raised by IMD’s assessment, as cited by the ministry, that El Niño conditions are currently present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are likely to strengthen during the June-September monsoon season. IMD has also predicted seasonal rainfall at around 90 percent of the long-period average, indicating a below-normal monsoon.
Impact of El Nino on Kharif Crops
The impact has already been seen in Maharashtra, where rainfall between June 1 and June 15 was only measured to be at 27.4 mm or 26 percent of normal levels, as per a state government review reported by PTI. The government has advised farmers not to rush sowing operations until rainfall becomes more dependable.
Water Shortage in Mumbai
Delayed rainfall is also beginning to impact urban water supplies. In Mumbai, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation has imposed a 20 percent cut in water supply to commercial, sports, and industrial establishments after the reservoir levels fell to 10.35 percent of capacity. Water connections for construction projects and swimming pools have also been suspended.
