In a modest office in Bhimavaram, Jagadish Thota experiences mixed emotions of relief and caution. Following US President Donald Trump’s recent executive order exempting tariffs of up to 100% on products from the five largest buyers of Russian oil or gas, including India, Thota expressed his thoughts. This decision reversed previous sanctions tied to the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act.
“Until last week, we were really worried about that 100% tariff. Last evening’s announcement was a quick relief,” noted Thota, whose company, Jagadeesh Marine Exports, relies heavily on the US market for its shrimp and seafood sales. He added, “We got a bit of relief, but we are not fully comfortable because every day some new things keep coming up.”
Thota’s perspective mirrors the sentiment across India’s seafood export sector, valued at $8.28 billion. Over the past year, Trump has threatened India with tariffs ranging from 10% to 100%, particularly linked to its Russian oil purchases. Although many of these threats did not materialize into actual tariffs, repeated changes in trade policy have caused unease among exporters and led US buyers to reconsider their sourcing strategies.
Indian exporters have demonstrated remarkable resilience by preemptively increasing shipments before tariff announcements and swiftly branching out into new markets. Despite tumultuous conditions, India’s seafood exports reached an impressive $8.46 billion (₹73,890 crore) in FY26.
“The tariff issues in the US market affected India’s seafood exports to the US during FY26, with shipments declining 20% in volume and 14.22% in value. However, this was offset by increased exports to the EU and China,” explained P Jawahar, chairman of the Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA).
Diversification became both a necessary and immediate strategy for exporters. “We had no option but to diversify our exports to the European Union, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East to offset some of the losses because of huge inventories,” commented Alex K. Ninan, a partner at Baby Marine Group in Kerala. This push towards alternative markets has proven beneficial in the current fiscal year.
In fact, India’s seafood exports surged by 13% year-on-year to $4.5 billion during the first half of FY27, with notable increases to the EU, China, Japan, Vietnam, and other regions. Thota has also reduced his reliance on the US market. “We have diversified our exports to Europe, Russia, and China. The share of US business is now 50%, down from 80% at one point,” he stated.
The EU has approved an additional 21 Indian fishery establishments for exports, bringing the total to 625 across various states, including Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Odisha, and Maharashtra. This expansion is expected to further enhance shipments, particularly of aquaculture shrimp and cephalopods, to Europe.
Despite these diversification efforts, challenges persist. The US market remains pivotal for India, accounting for over a quarter of the country’s seafood exports by both value and volume. Frozen shrimp alone constitutes 67% of India’s seafood export revenue, making it hard to substitute.
According to Jawahar, the US offers significantly better price realizations compared to other markets, prompting exporters to prioritize shipments to the US, even at the risk of sidelining the EU. During the first five months of the current fiscal year, exports to the US increased by 1% to $1.25 billion, following the lifting of the 50% reciprocal tariff and its replacement with a 10% tariff under Section 301. The US accounted for 34% of India’s total seafood exports during this timeframe.
China, while providing an avenue for large volumes, presents its own pricing challenges. “China takes large volumes, but pricing remains a challenge because Ecuadorian shipments also account for 70% of the Chinese market,” Thota explained.
Competition from Ecuador is becoming increasingly prominent in the US, where it has overtaken India as the leading supplier of shrimp. Between January and August, Ecuador’s shrimp exports to the US rose 32% year-on-year to 195,023 metric tonnes (MT), surpassing India’s 177,994 MT. In 2025, India led with 300,051 MT compared to Ecuador’s 231,804 MT.
Regaining lost market share will hinge not only on tariff adjustments but also on India’s capacity to compete on factors beyond pricing. Thota believes that Indian exporters still possess an advantage in value-added products, as Ecuador’s processing facilities have not yet advanced enough to produce these items. “When they find ways of getting into new products, that might be a big threat to Indian exporters in the long run,” he warned.
Indian exporters will need to concentrate on higher-value products, like battered and ready-to-eat seafood, where differentiation and processing can enable them to compete effectively. For now, however, the focus remains on stability rather than rapid expansion. Thota expressed that he does not foresee a significant increase in industry volumes soon, stating, “Surviving and sustaining volumes is our only focus now.”
For an industry challenged by tariff threats, changing buyer preferences, and increasing competition from Ecuador, maintaining export volumes has become a significant achievement. The immediate goal is not just to reclaim lost territory in the US market but to ensure business sustainability across various markets while strengthening their position in higher-value seafood products.
