Bhubaneswar: The likelihood of thunderstorms and lightning returning to Odisha is increased as of Monday, influenced by two meteorological troughs spanning the interior and northern regions of the state, coinciding with the southwest monsoon’s withdrawal phase.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released a yellow warning for thunderstorms, accompanied by lightning and gusty winds reaching speeds of 30-40 kmph, affecting numerous districts until October 8.
On October 5, the warning applies to Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Kataka, Sundaragada, Jharsuguda, Baragada, Sambalpur, Debagada, Anugola, Dhenkanal, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Sonpur, Boudh, Nuapada, Balangir, and Kandhamala.
For October 6, the districts include Sundaragada, Jharsuguda, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Kalahandi, Nabarangpur, Rayagada, Koraput, and Malkangiri.
From October 7 to 8, the warning extends to Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Kataka, Sundaragada, Jharsuguda, Baragada, Sambalpur, Debagada, Anugola, Dhenkanal, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Sonpur, Boudh, Kalahandi, Kandhamala, Nabarangpur, Rayagada, Koraput, Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Khordha, and Nayagada.
During this timeframe, light to moderate rainfall is also anticipated in these areas, with a gradual decrease expected afterward.
This weather alert comes in light of previous forecasts indicating the potential formation of the first low-pressure system of the post-monsoon season over the Bay of Bengal around October 13, which raises concerns about heavy downpours ahead of the Dussehra and Durga Puja celebrations.
The IMD’s extended-range forecast, released on October 1, predicts the emergence of a cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea by October 12. Following this, a low-pressure area is expected to develop over the Andaman Sea the next day, likely moving west-northwest into the southeast Bay of Bengal. The agency has indicated a low probability of this system strengthening into a depression in the central parts of the south Bay of Bengal and adjacent central Bay of Bengal around October 15. Numerical models, including those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the American Global Forecast System, generally concur on the development of this low-pressure area and its possible progression into a depression or deep depression. However, there remains uncertainty regarding further intensification into a cyclonic storm and its precise path.
Historically, October is notably favorable for cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal due to warm sea-surface temperatures and relatively low vertical wind shear. The region has experienced significant storms during this month, including the devastating 1999 Super Cyclone and more recent events like Phailin in 2013, Hudhud in 2014, and Titli in 2018.
It is worth noting that Cyclone Phailin made landfall in Odisha near Gopalpur in Ganjam district on October 12, 2013, right during the Durga Puja festivities.
