In recent years, the discourse surrounding “climate change” and “global warming” has gained considerable traction in public conversations, underscoring their undeniable impact. Experts indicate that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has evolved, with periods of welcome rains now often accompanied by severe disruptions.
States including Maharashtra, Kerala, and Gujarat have been subjected to relentless bouts of intense rainfall, resulting in flooded roads, toppled trees, and halted transportation. These occurrences raise an essential question: Is climate change reshaping India’s weather patterns?
The answer, however, is complex and entails various factors that must be understood.
Recognizing Climate Change
Climate change is a reality acknowledged by environmentalists, scientists, and the general populace alike. In response to a question in Parliament, the Indian government confirmed that shifts in weather conditions are linked to climate change.
A report from the Ministry of Earth Sciences, titled “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region,” reveals that the intricate interactions within the Earth system, exacerbated by rising temperatures, have led to increased occurrences of localized heavy rainfall, droughts, and intensified tropical cyclones in recent decades.
The report further highlights that from 1901 to 2018, India’s surface air temperature rose by approximately 0.7 degrees Celsius, while the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean increased by about 1 degree Celsius from 1951 to 2015. These changes have resulted in heightened variability and extremes in monsoon patterns, particularly affecting central India, northern regions, and the Western Himalayas.
Weather Systems vs. Climate Change
Although long-term data suggests climate change is a contributing factor, attributing any specific instance of heavy rainfall directly to it can be misleading. Meteorologists assert that immediate weather systems primarily drive individual rainfall events. Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet Weather, clarifies that the recent heavy rainfall in Maharashtra and Gujarat stems from various weather systems rather than a direct link to global warming.
Palawat explains, “The extremely heavy rainfall in Maharashtra and Gujarat is due to multiple weather systems. A depression formed over Odisha and moved towards Madhya Pradesh, along with a cyclonic circulation over the East Central Arabian Sea and North Maharashtra. Additionally, a seasonal trough was situated along the 21-degree latitude. These combined systems are responsible for the heavy rainfall.” However, he acknowledged that while climate change may not directly cause specific weather patterns, it does amplify their intensity.
“As temperatures rise and greenhouse gas levels increase, the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture also rises. This leads to the formation of towering thunderclouds, which can produce heavy rainfall, sometimes resulting in cloudbursts,” Palawat added.
Environmentalist Siddhant Sarang expressed similar views, stating that while climate change may not manifest explicitly in single weather events, the overarching trends align closely with historical climate data. Research indicates a clear rise in extreme rainfall incidents along India’s west coast, despite overall seasonal rainfall remaining stable.
Transformation of Monsoon Patterns
Experts emphasize that global warming is a long-term phenomenon, making it challenging to link any single event directly to it. The focus should not solely be on the overall increase in rainfall during the monsoon season but rather on the delivery pattern of this rainfall across different states.
As Maharashtra grapples with heavy rains, environmentalist Hema Chari notes that this unpredictability aligns with scientific predictions. “The changing rainfall patterns are a major concern. We are witnessing longer dry spells punctuated by short bursts of extremely intense rainfall, which is consistent with decades of scientific warnings. Warmer air can hold about 7% more water vapor for every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature, increasing the likelihood of extreme rainfall events,” Chari explained.
These patterns are not isolated; Chari points out that Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Gujarat have all experienced similar extreme rainfall and flooding events in recent years. Although each occurrence has its meteorological reasons, collectively, they reflect a broader pattern consistent with climate change projections.
The Price of Development
In the relentless pursuit of modernization, humanity often infringes upon natural landscapes, neglecting the consequences of such actions. Environmentalist Veena Maruthoor from Kerala expresses concern over this crisis, stating, “Humans are racing towards development at the expense of the environment. No nation is immune to this. We consistently break records for the hottest days, while leaders remain oblivious to the ongoing damages to natural ecosystems, which are eroding due to human actions and contributing to global warming.”
Maruthoor highlights the need to consider local climate changes, suggesting that deforestation raises local temperatures, directly affecting rainfall patterns. Rains that once fell in a controlled manner now arrive in torrents, followed by harsh sunlight, indicating a significant shift in weather behavior.
Experts warn that neglecting local ecological systems is exacerbating these changes, and they stress the importance of adapting disaster preparedness to cope with increasingly erratic rainfall patterns.
